Heat waves, wildfires: Climate risks are now factored into real estate purchasing decisions
After a summer marked by wildfires in Gironde and the Landes, the Capifrance network has observed that homebuyers are now factoring climate risk into their purchasing decisions. Insurability, summer temperatures in the home, and high-risk areas: the questions asked during showings are changing—and with them, perhaps, the ranking of regions.
Following the wildfires that struck the Gironde and Landes regions this summer, and repeated heat waves, the issue is no longer merely theoretical. For a long time, people bought homes based on their location, size, price, or energy efficiency. In a press release issued in late July, the real estate network Capifrance states that a new criterion is gradually gaining prominence in buyers’ decision-making: climate risk. It also shares an analysis by its CEO, Philippe Buyens, on how global warming is already having a tangible impact on real estate transactions.
The initial observation comes from the field. Based on feedback from its advisors located throughout the country, Capifrance has noticed a shift in buyers’ expectations, notably a boom in sales in mountainous regions. Haute-Savoie has thus become the department with the highest number of sales at Capifrance nationwide. This raises a question: Are certain departments with a more temperate climate experiencing renewed interest, while others, which are more exposed to the elements, are becoming more vulnerable?
During showings, new questions ar
“Now, showings are giving rise to new questions,” writes Capifrance. Is the property located in a high-risk area? Is it easily insurable? What is the temperature inside during the height of summer? Could brush-clearing requirements slow down a sale? These are all issues that hardly ever came up in discussions a few years ago, but which now weigh heavily on negotiations: the network is openly wondering whether the most exposed properties now require more haggling over the price.
For sellers, the message is clear. A secluded home in the heart of a pine forest or scrubland—once synonymous with tranquility and quality of life—may become harder to sell if the buyer anticipates a fire risk, water restrictions, or high insurance premiums. Insurability, in fact, is becoming an issue in its own right: a home that is difficult or expensive to insure sells less well, and Capifrance lists this as one of the issues that now frequently comes up during property viewings. For buyers, the list of factors to consider is growing. In addition to the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)—which rates homes from A to G—there is now a new focus on how the property performs during periods of extreme heat. In fact, since its 2021 reform, this assessment has included a summer comfort indicator. Just as the “green value”—which means a well-rated home sells for more than one with poor thermal insulation—applied to heating bills, it may soon apply to a home’s ability to remain livable during a heat wave.
Toward a New Geography of Real Estate?
The press release goes further: “Beyond changing purchasing criteria, it may be the entire hierarchy of regions that is being redrawn. ” Regions with milder climates would become more attractive, city centers would regain appeal over very isolated homes, and buyers would focus more on a property’s long-term value, taking into account its exposure to climate risks and its ability to retain its value over the next twenty years.
For an individual, this last point changes the very nature of the purchase: the current price matters less than what the property will be worth when it is resold—in ten or twenty years—under conditions that will have changed yet again.
The question of the role of local governments also arises: do those that invest in climate change adaptation enhance the appeal of their region? Among the questions posed to Philippe Buyens, one sums it all up: Is climate becoming a purchasing criterion as important as the energy performance certificate (DPE)?
Another question that has come up: What are the main criteria buyers are looking for today to better cope with extreme heat? The network does not provide any figures on price discounts or premiums related to climate risk. But the mere fact that a major national network is making this a key focus of its communications speaks volumes about what its agents hear every week in the field. For anyone buying a home today, the practical advice can be summed up in a few words: find out about the community’s exposure to natural hazards, and, if possible, visit the property during the hottest hours of the day.
