Real Estate 2025: A Subtle but Promising Recovery
The real estate market appears to be turning a difficult page. After a chaotic start to 2024, the sector is beginning a slow recovery that points to a more optimistic outlook for 2025. While the downturn that began in 2023 is not yet completely behind us, several positive signs are beginning to emerge.
A Gradual Recovery
The first few months of 2024 were marked by falling prices and a sharp decline in transaction volume. However, starting in the spring, the market began to recover thanks to improved economic conditions. While forecasts had projected fewer than 770,000 sales for the year, the final figure is now expected to approach 800,000 transactions, reflecting renewed momentum.
On the price front, the downward trend has also leveled off. Between January and December 2024, prices rose slightly by 0.4% nationwide. Rural areas benefited particularly from this recovery, with a 2.1% increase, while prices in major cities stabilized (-0.2% for the Top 10, -0.7% for the Top 50). Even Paris experienced only a modest decline of 0.4% over the year.
Key Trends to Watch
1. Demand Is on the Rise Again:
The number of planned purchases has surged by 10% in one year. Urban areas, particularly France’s 10 largest metropolitan areas, have seen a dramatic 24% increase in purchase intentions.
At the same time, supply is beginning to decline. In Paris, for example, the number of properties available for sale has fallen by 7% since the start of the year.
2. Heading toward a recovery in 2025?
The prospect of a cut in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) key interest rates could lead to a further decline in mortgage rates, which could fall below 3% before summer.
If inflation remains under control at around 2%, the spring of 2025 could mark a turning point, with a rebound in demand and the start of a new bull market.
Cautious optimism
Dr. Thomas Lefebvre, Vice President of Data at SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents, explains: “This gradual shift in the market’s direction can be partly attributed to an improvement in household purchasing power. Lower interest rates, coupled with a slight decline in real estate prices, have enabled buyers to purchase more spacious properties, gaining an average of 5 m² in one year. ”
Despite these positive signs, the market remains sensitive to political and economic uncertainties. While 2025 looks more promising, we will nevertheless need to closely monitor developments in the global context to confirm this nascent recovery.
