Existing-home market: The market is returning to equilibrium, without a surge in prices
In its July economic report, Notaires de France describes a stabilizing existing-home market: sales are still rising, but at a more moderate pace, while prices remain virtually flat. An analysis of a soft landing.
Has the French real estate market found its equilibrium? That is, in essence, the message of the Real Estate Market Report published on July 23, 2026, by Notaires de France. As of the end of May 2026, 949,000 sales of existing homes were recorded over a 12-month rolling period, a volume that continues to trend upward (+5.7% year-over-year). But the pace is slowing significantly: three months earlier, at the end of February, growth was still at +11.4%. In other words, the recovery is continuing, but its pace is clearly changing.
This slowdown is by no means a complete halt. Demand remains strong, notaries insist: the French still have real estate plans. They’re simply taking more time to carry them out and negotiating more firmly. Buyers are now seeking the best balance between quality, energy efficiency, functionality, and a controlled budget. Against this backdrop, two obstacles keep cropping up: an uncertain economic environment and household confidence that has further deteriorated, all within a political and fiscal context that is itself in turmoil.
Stable prices, a market where negotiation plays its role
On the price front, the report confirms near-stability: +0.2% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a rebound in the Île-de-France region (+0.6%). For notaries, this stability is healthy: it reflects a market where negotiation is once again playing its rightful role and where property values remain in line with households’ purchasing power. Far from a scenario of a sharp correction, we are witnessing a gradual adjustment that protects both sellers and buyers.
Behind the national average, however, lie significant disparities. The capital and its surrounding region—which had experienced the sharpest decline during the rate hike—are showing the first signs of recovery, while certain regional cities and rural areas are still experiencing mixed trends. This geographic heterogeneity calls for caution: talking about “a single” real estate market makes less and less sense, given how much local situations vary depending on market conditions, demographics, and the attractiveness of each residential area.
This rebalancing comes after two years of significant turbulence linked to rising interest rates. The gradual return of credit and the easing of long-term rates have given prospective buyers some breathing room, without, however, reigniting speculation. This context is summed up by the phrase chosen by the notaries themselves: “a balance to be preserved.” What happens next will depend largely on the banks’ ability to resume lending on attractive terms, and on the creditworthiness of households whose purchasing power in the housing market remains fragile.
New Construction Struggles, Existing Housing Takes Center Stage
The outlook is bleaker for new housing. Housing starts remain insufficient to meet household needs—a structural shortfall that weighs on overall supply and automatically reinforces the role of the existing housing stock. In practical terms, the bulk of the available supply consists of properties that need to be renovated or brought up to current standards, with the underlying issues of energy efficiency and the timeline for phasing out energy-inefficient homes continuing to weigh on transaction prices. For an investor, the difference in value between an energy-efficient property and an energy-inefficient one in need of renovation becomes a key factor in the decision to buy.
For buyers, the message from real estate notaries is ultimately encouraging: the window for negotiation remains open. With prices stabilizing and sellers more willing to negotiate, buyers now have some breathing room—something they had lost at the height of the housing shortage. However, buyers still need to secure financing: while the recovery in lending is very real, it remains contingent on interest rates—which, at around 3%, are still significantly higher than they were before 2022. The best-prepared applicants (those with a substantial down payment, stable employment, and an energy-efficient home) remain the big winners in this market where negotiation has regained its place.
The summer edition of the report finally takes a closer look at the seaside resort market—for both houses and apartments—a topic that comes at just the right time as people head out on vacation and plan to buy second homes. This should give prospective buyers of a seaside getaway food for thought, in a coastal market that follows its own cycles, often disconnected from the national economic climate. Something to watch for once the school year begins: whether or not the resumption of lending is confirmed—the true barometer of a sustainable recovery in transaction volumes.
