Do climate risks lower the value of prime real estate?
In the wake of the fires in Gironde, homeowners and prospective buyers are wondering about the future of the Arcachon Basin. Coldwell Banker, which draws comparisons to Malibu, Aspen, and Palm Beach, offers an answer: a natural disaster causes a slowdown in transactions, but rarely a lasting loss in value. This is an argument worth examining closely.
The wildfires that affected part of the Gironde region this summer have left a deep mark on the area. Now that the immediate crisis has passed, a question is on the minds of homeowners, homebuyers, and investors: What impact will these events have on the real estate market in the Arcachon Basin, one of the most expensive areas in France? Coldwell Banker Europa Realty, which has long been established in the Arcachon Basin and in Bordeaux, has chosen to address this question publicly by drawing on observations of major international residential markets.
His thesis can be summed up in one sentence: a natural disaster causes a slowdown in the market, but rarely a lasting loss of value. Viewings slow down, some projects are postponed, and buyers seek greater clarity—a phase that the network describes as normal, and one that does not call into question the market’s long-term appeal as long as the fundamentals remain solid.
Malibu, Aspen, Palm Beach: the precedents cited
The argument is based on textbook examples. Malibu has experienced four major wildfires—in 1993, 2007, 2018, and 2025—yet it has remained one of the most prestigious residential markets in the United States. Aspen, Palm Beach, Lake Como, and Saint Barthélemy each illustrate, in their own way, the ability of exceptional destinations to maintain their appeal despite crises. The reason given is that in these markets, value is based primarily on the scarcity of land, quality of life, and the environment, and buyers think in terms of long-term assets rather than real estate cycles.
The third argument, which is more counterintuitive: crises strengthen the resilience of regions. Natural disasters generally accelerate investment in prevention, building retrofits, and the protection of natural areas. Homebuyers, for their part, are paying increasing attention to a property’s resilience: building orientation, materials, regulatory brush clearing, and emergency access. This ultimately creates a premium for the best-prepared properties.
As applied to the Arcachon Basin, the network lists the fundamental factors it considers to be intact: a structurally limited supply of land; a natural heritage unmatched in Europe—comprising the ocean, forests, oyster-farming villages, and the Dune du Pilat; sustained demand from both France and abroad; Cap Ferret’s reputation among a clientele of executives and prominent figures; and its immediate proximity to Bordeaux.
What the argument says—and what it doesn’t say
“Natural disasters create a crisis of confidence. They do not redraw the map of high-demand areas,” asserts Laurent Demeure, president of Coldwell Banker Europa Realty, who points out that “fires first and foremost upend people’s lives before they impact the real estate market.” Jean-Luc Tonneau, director of the Arcachon Basin and Bordeaux branches—where the network claims to have sold over one billion euros worth of properties—assures us that “confidence in the Arcachon Basin remains intact” and that “projects are moving forward.” The local market remains, moreover, very high-end: in March, the network sold a beachfront property in Pyla-sur-Mer, listed at 5 million euros.
This assessment, coming from a market participant, should be taken for what it is: a professional analysis, but also an effort to reassure an anxious clientele. Two caveats are worth noting. The first concerns the insurance industry: repeated claims in the same area eventually affect premiums, deductibles, and—in extreme cases such as those observed in California—lead to the outright withdrawal of certain insurers. This factor impacts a property’s liquidity much more quickly than its listed price.
The second factor is regulatory. In France, exposure to fire risk is gradually leading to legal obligations to clear brush, urban planning restrictions in risk prevention plans, and stricter building codes. All of these costs weigh on the return on a second home, even when the market value remains stable. For investors, the conclusion is therefore not that climate risk is neutral, but that it manifests itself first in holding costs and the time it takes to resell a property, before being reflected in the price. This is a nuance that price-per-square-meter statistics—published with a lag of several quarters—do not capture.
