Unpaid Rent: The End of the Winter Moratorium Without the Fearsome Impact
In April 2026—the first full month following the end of the winter break—the payment delinquency rate stood at 2.7% across the Monsieur Hugo platform, according to its fifth barometer. This represents a slight increase, but not the sharp rise that had been feared. The barometer does, however, highlight an area of growing concern: the Grand Est region, which now accounts for one in every three delinquencies.
There were fears of a sudden surge; it did not materialize. April 2026 was the first full month following the end of the winter moratorium on March 31, and the first in which the expedited procedures under the 2025 law became fully applicable. This was enough to fuel fears of a sharp rise in unpaid rent. However, the fifth report from Monsieur Hugo—a rental management platform that tracks monthly rent payments automatically deducted from its network—shows only a slight change: 33 incidents out of 1,206 payments, representing a delinquency rate of 2.7%, compared to 2.3% in March. This 0.4-point increase brings the indicator back to its normal level following the seasonal low in the spring.
Put into perspective, this rate remains moderate. Industry studies estimate the national average rate of unpaid rent at around 3.5 percent—lower in the Île-de-France region and higher in rural areas, where it often exceeds 4 percent. The platform attributes this difference to direct debit, which treats rent as a priority payment and detects a payment issue the very next day after the due date, whereas a landlord using traditional management methods may not notice the default until several days later. Over a five-month period, the direct debit success rate remains around 97.5%. A retrospective analysis since December also reveals a clear trend: a stable baseline of around 2 to 3 percent, a seasonal peak in January at 3.47 percent, followed by a gradual return to equilibrium. April simply returned to this steady-state level—proof, according to the platform, that direct debit absorbs seasonal fluctuations without amplifying them.
Grand Est, a new area of concern
While the overall level is reassuring, its geographic distribution raises questions. With 10 incidents out of 33, the Grand Est region alone accounts for 30.3% of delays—a record since the barometer was launched—and nearly as many as the next two regions combined.
This is no fluke: the region has ranked first in every edition since January. The barometer cites several structural explanations, ranging from a weakened industrial base in the automotive and steel sectors to a poverty rate higher than the national average, as well as rents that are rising faster than wages in regional cities such as Strasbourg, Metz, and Nancy.
Occitanie has returned to the top three (15.2% of incidents), driven by a large population of precarious workers around Toulouse and Montpellier. Île-de-France, meanwhile, has stabilized at 12.1%. The findings paint a picture of vulnerabilities in which financial setbacks are more concentrated in medium-sized cities than in large metropolitan areas, where incomes have held up better against inflation.
Furnished rentals are losing ground, with average rent at an all-time low
The barometer highlights two more encouraging signs. First, the end of the upward trend in furnished rentals: after four months of steady growth, their share of late payments fell by 12 points to 71.9%, driven by the expiration of student leases and a faster turnover of the rental stock in the spring. Studio apartments, which had been completely spared since the beginning of the year, are also reappearing to a marginal extent (3.1%), while three-room and larger units remain the core of the problem, at 78.1%.
Next, the average rent for these units dropped to 722 euros, its lowest level in five months. This shift toward lower rents paints a clear picture: households with limited incomes, living in the intermediate private rental market, for whom a rent of 700 to 730 euros often accounts for more than a third of their net income. “The end of the winter moratorium did not cause the feared shock,” sums up Bruno Cantegrel, founder of Monsieur Hugo, who sees direct debit as a stabilizing factor.
The regulatory environment further underscores the importance of responsiveness: under the 2025 law, a landlord may—after a demand for payment goes unanswered—initiate wage garnishment without going before a judge if the situation is not resolved within six weeks. In this race against the clock, identifying a payment issue the day after the due date—rather than a week later—makes all the difference for the landlord. Still, behind the well-managed average, it is always the same regions and the same tight budgets that bear the brunt of fluctuations in purchasing power.
